strategy
- Same Crime, Same Sentence?
Two identical cases can get wildly different verdicts with no bias anywhere. Why we obsess over the flaw with a villain and ignore the one without.
- Why Very Smart People Get It Wrong
A decade after the 2016 election needle swung from 80% Clinton to >95% Trump in one night, we've built a whole industry that turns every question into a confident percentage. The lesson from that night is worth more now than it was then.
- The String Under the Table
Psychology can explain why we warm to some people. The awkward part is that honest rapport and manipulation use much of the same machinery.
- No Stop-Loss on a Forecast
In April 2014 every single economist in a 67-person survey said bond yields would rise. Yields fell. The problem isn't that the experts are stupid — it's that their opinion reaches you stripped of the only things that would let you act on it.
- The Revolution Can Be a Bubble
Apple reached $5 trillion partly by sitting out the AI spending race. That is not a verdict on whether AI is real. It is a warning that a technology can change the world while the companies financing it still destroy capital.
- All In, and Grinning
A whole generation of investors has never traded through a bear market. Here is the one trick that matters — and why even Druckenmiller, running the best fund of his era, couldn't dodge it.
- The $200 Barrel That Never Comes
Iran and America are now shooting across the Strait of Hormuz, the exact scenario a year of forecasts said would send oil to $200. Brent is at $88. The gap between the prophecy and the price is the most instructive thing in the market right now.
- When Winning Stopped Meaning What It Used To
Two great powers, two wars, the same shock — overwhelming force that refuses to turn into victory. What actually changed, and what leaders have to learn again.
- The Team That Never Let You Breathe
When two evenly matched sides meet and one dominates completely, individual talent isn't the variable. So where does the surplus come from — and does it transfer to anything outside a football pitch?
