State of the Market

Report date: September 21, 2026Data through: September 18, 2026

Uptrend

Near record highs · Firm risk appetite

Trend

67%

Price position and direction of the 20-, 50- and 200-day averages.

All-time high

-1.8%

Last reached 25 trading days ago, on August 13, 2026.

Volatility

9.2%

Low · Rising

Unfilled gaps

0 below · 0 above

0 persistent

Risk appetite trend

83%

Three-pillar composite.

The week in focus

What happened last week?

FOMC Rate DecisionThe Federal Reserve raised the federal-funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, citing resilient domestic spending and elevated inflation.
August Retail SalesRetail and food-services sales rose 1.2% month over month, exceeding the 0.8% consensus estimate and signaling stronger-than-expected consumer demand.
August Industrial ProductionIndustrial production increased 0.2% in August, below the 0.3% consensus estimate, while manufacturing capacity utilization declined to 75.7%.

U.S. equities finished lower over the week.

What matters this week?

Sep 24
August New Home SalesThe report will test whether mortgage affordability and financing costs are restraining residential demand and construction activity.
Sep 25
August Durable Goods OrdersThe data will indicate whether business investment and manufacturing demand are sustaining growth despite tighter financial conditions.
Sep 25
Final September Consumer SentimentThe final reading will show whether inflation concerns are weakening household confidence and potentially limiting future consumption.

Moving averages

Metric	Value	Price vs. average	Average direction, 5 days
MA20	$762.51	Below or at (-0.1%)	Falling or flat (-0.3%)
MA50	$757.89	Above (+0.5%)	Rising (+0.2%)
MA200	$712.49	Above (+6.9%)	Rising (+0.3%)

Realized volatility

Current	9.2% annualized
Long-term context	Low — it was higher in 77% of prior 21-day periods.
Change over 5 days	Rising (+0.5 percentage points)

65-session return profile

Period	Median return
Market hours	-0.04%
Outside market hours	+0.09%
Weekend and holiday gap	-0.02%

Session	Median return
Monday	-0.23%
Tuesday	-0.32%
Wednesday	-0.13%
Thursday	+0.40%
Friday	+0.11%

Open gaps

Persistent unfilled gaps can signal sustained one-sided movement during the period in which they formed. If the market later reverses toward a nearby gap, traders often watch the gap zone as a potential reference or target area. A gap is not guaranteed to be filled and should not be treated as a standalone forecast.

No unfilled gap zones formed during the last 65 trading sessions.

Risk appetite

Higher ratios favor the risk-on side of each pair. Every pair uses the same six signals: price position and five-session direction for its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages.

Three-pillar composite

Pillar	Trend
Equity cyclicality	50%
Equity factor appetite	100%
Credit appetite	100%

Pair trend matrix

Signal	Trend	MA20	MA50	MA200
Consumer cyclicalityXLY/XLP	0%	Below or at (-0.8%) Falling or flat (-0.7%)	Below or at (-1.3%) Falling or flat (-0.4%)	Below or at (-4.7%) Falling or flat (-0.3%)
Technology vs. utilitiesXLK/XLU	100%	Above (+5.8%) Rising (+1.5%)	Above (+10.2%) Rising (+1.2%)	Above (+25.6%) Rising (+0.9%)
High beta appetiteSPHB/SPLV	100%	Above (+3.3%) Rising (+0.1%)	Above (+5.2%) Rising (+0.1%)	Above (+12.2%) Rising (+0.6%)
Credit appetiteHYG/IEI	100%	Above (+0.4%) Rising (+0.2%)	Above (+0.8%) Rising (+0.1%)	Above (+2.2%) Rising (+0.1%)

Sector and industry leadership

Leaders and laggards in the canonical medium-term group ranking.

Sectors

Top sectors	Bottom sectors
TechnologyRank 1	Consumer CyclicalRank 10
EnergyRank 2	UtilitiesRank 11

Industries

Top industries	Bottom industries
Computer HardwareRank 1	Mortgage FinanceRank 140
Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingRank 2	GamblingRank 141
Electronics & Computer DistributionRank 3	Airports & Air ServicesRank 142
SilverRank 4	Footwear & AccessoriesRank 143
CopperRank 5	Advertising AgenciesRank 144