State of the Market
Strong uptrend
Near record highs · Mixed participation · Firm risk appetite
Trend
100%
Price position and direction of the 20-, 50- and 200-day averages.
All-time high
-1.6%
Last reached 6 trading days ago, on August 13, 2026.
Volatility
12.5%
Typical · Falling
Unfilled gaps
1 below · 1 above
1 persistent
Risk appetite trend
86%
Three-pillar composite.
Market breadth
58%
Typical · Above 52-week average · Falling
Moving averages
| Metric | Value | Price vs. average | Average direction, 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| MA20 | $762.33 | Above (+0.4%) | Rising (+0.8%) |
| MA50 | $751.56 | Above (+1.9%) | Rising (+0.4%) |
| MA200 | $704.99 | Above (+8.6%) | Rising (+0.3%) |
Realized volatility
| Current | 12.5% annualized |
|---|---|
| Long-term context | Typical — it was higher in 53% of prior 21-day periods. |
| Change over 5 days | Falling (-0.8 percentage points) |
65-session return profile
| Period | Median return |
|---|---|
| Market hours | +0.01% |
| Outside market hours | +0.13% |
| Weekend and holiday gap | +0.51% |
| Session | Median return |
|---|---|
| Monday | +0.12% |
| Tuesday | +0.14% |
| Wednesday | -0.13% |
| Thursday | +0.29% |
| Friday | +0.32% |
Open gaps
Persistent unfilled gaps can signal sustained one-sided movement during the period in which they formed. If the market later reverses toward a nearby gap, traders often watch the gap zone as a potential reference or target area. A gap is not guaranteed to be filled and should not be treated as a standalone forecast.
| Date | Location | Gap zone | Width | Distance | Age (sessions) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Above market | $769.50–$772.51 | 0.39% | 0.49% | 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | Below market | $758.58–$760.52 | 0.26% | 0.68% | 13 · Persistent |
Risk appetite
Higher ratios favor the risk-on side of each pair. Every pair uses the same six signals: price position and five-session direction for its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages.
Three-pillar composite
| Pillar | Trend |
|---|---|
| Equity cyclicality | 75% |
| Equity factor appetite | 83% |
| Credit appetite | 100% |
Pair trend matrix
| Signal | Trend | MA20 | MA50 | MA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer cyclicalityXLY/XLP | 50% | Above (+0.5%) Rising (+0.6%) |
Above (+0.1%) Falling or flat (-0.1%) |
Below or at (-3.6%) Falling or flat (-0.4%) |
| Technology vs. utilitiesXLK/XLU | 100% | Above (+3.3%) Rising (+2.0%) |
Above (+4.8%) Rising (+0.1%) |
Above (+20.1%) Rising (+0.6%) |
| High beta appetiteSPHB/SPLV | 83% | Above (+3.1%) Rising (+1.1%) |
Above (+1.1%) Falling or flat (-0.2%) |
Above (+11.5%) Rising (+0.4%) |
| Credit appetiteHYG/IEI | 100% | Above (+0.2%) Rising (+0.1%) |
Above (+0.4%) Rising (+0.1%) |
Above (+1.8%) Rising (+0.1%) |
Market breadth
| Current | 57.8% (289 of 500) |
|---|---|
| Weekly change | -12.2 percentage points |
| 52-week average | 55.4% · Above 52-week average |
Breadth thrusts — past year
Every two-week move of at least 150 stocks, in either direction, is listed. Consecutive qualifying readings remain separate because their frequency can also describe the market environment.
| Date | Breadth | Two-week change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | 32.2% | -30.6 pts |
Sector and industry leadership
Leaders and laggards in the canonical medium-term group ranking.
Sectors
| Top sectors | Bottom sectors |
|---|---|
| TechnologyRank 1 | Consumer DefensiveRank 10 |
| EnergyRank 2 | UtilitiesRank 11 |
Industries
| Top industries | Bottom industries |
|---|---|
| Computer HardwareRank 1 | Utilities - Independent Power ProducersRank 139 |
| Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingRank 2 | Mortgage FinanceRank 140 |
| Staffing & Employment ServicesRank 3 | Advertising AgenciesRank 141 |
| Semiconductor Equipment & MaterialsRank 4 | Airports & Air ServicesRank 142 |
| CopperRank 5 | Footwear & AccessoriesRank 143 |
The week in focus
What happened last week?
Iran-related conflict and uncertainty over Hormuz traffic lifted oil prices; AP reported higher Treasury yields and lower major U.S. equity indexes, linking the move to inflation and financial-conditions pressure. The Treasury announced larger long-end liquidity-support buybacks, after which the 30-year Treasury yield fell and the S&P 500 rose; contemporaneous reporting linked the reaction to efforts to improve liquidity in the long-dated bond market. Walmart reported strong quarterly revenue and raised its full-year growth guidance, but its shares fell in premarket trading as the reported reaction was attributed to weaker near-term guidance and slower U.S. comparable-sales growth.
What matters this week?