State of the Market
Strong uptrend
Near record highs · Broad participation · Firm risk appetite
Trend
100%
Price position and direction of the 20-, 50- and 200-day averages.
All-time high
-0.2%
Last reached 1 trading day ago, on August 13, 2026.
Volatility
13.3%
Typical · Little changed
Unfilled gaps
1 below · 0 above
1 persistent
Risk appetite trend
81%
Three-pillar composite.
Market breadth
70%
Strong · Above 52-week average · Rising
Moving averages
| Metric | Value | Price vs. average | Average direction, 5 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| MA20 | $756.20 | Above (+2.7%) | Rising (+0.8%) |
| MA50 | $748.55 | Above (+3.7%) | Rising (+0.3%) |
| MA200 | $702.76 | Above (+10.5%) | Rising (+0.4%) |
Realized volatility
| Current | 13.3% annualized |
|---|---|
| Long-term context | Typical — it was higher in 49% of prior 21-day periods. |
| Change over 5 days | Little changed (-0.4 percentage points) |
65-session return profile
| Period | Median return |
|---|---|
| Market hours | +0.06% |
| Outside market hours | +0.13% |
| Weekend and holiday gap | +0.51% |
| Session | Median return |
|---|---|
| Monday | +0.12% |
| Tuesday | +0.14% |
| Wednesday | -0.13% |
| Thursday | +0.46% |
| Friday | +0.18% |
Open gaps
Persistent unfilled gaps can signal sustained one-sided movement during the period in which they formed. If the market later reverses toward a nearby gap, traders often watch the gap zone as a potential reference or target area. A gap is not guaranteed to be filled and should not be treated as a standalone forecast.
| Date | Location | Gap zone | Width | Distance | Age (sessions) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Below market | $758.58–$760.52 | 0.26% | 2.04% | 8 · Persistent |
Risk appetite
Higher ratios favor the risk-on side of each pair. Every pair uses the same six signals: price position and five-session direction for its 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages.
Three-pillar composite
| Pillar | Trend |
|---|---|
| Equity cyclicality | 58% |
| Equity factor appetite | 83% |
| Credit appetite | 100% |
Pair trend matrix
| Signal | Trend | MA20 | MA50 | MA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer cyclicalityXLY/XLP | 33% | Above (+1.2%) Rising (+0.2%) |
Below or at (-0.0%) Falling or flat (-0.4%) |
Below or at (-4.0%) Falling or flat (-0.2%) |
| Technology vs. utilitiesXLK/XLU | 83% | Above (+5.5%) Rising (+2.2%) |
Above (+5.0%) Falling or flat (-0.3%) |
Above (+20.8%) Rising (+0.7%) |
| High beta appetiteSPHB/SPLV | 83% | Above (+4.9%) Rising (+0.9%) |
Above (+1.6%) Falling or flat (-0.7%) |
Above (+12.7%) Rising (+0.5%) |
| Credit appetiteHYG/IEI | 100% | Above (+0.3%) Rising (+0.1%) |
Above (+0.5%) Rising (+0.1%) |
Above (+1.9%) Rising (+0.1%) |
Market breadth
| Current | 70.0% (350 of 500) |
|---|---|
| Weekly change | +3.8 percentage points |
| 52-week average | 55.8% · Above 52-week average |
Breadth thrusts — past year
Every two-week move of at least 150 stocks, in either direction, is listed. Consecutive qualifying readings remain separate because their frequency can also describe the market environment.
| Date | Breadth | Two-week change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | 60.6% | +30.0 pts |
| 2026-03-15 | 32.2% | -30.8 pts |